PROJECTION OF MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR CUBA USING THE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL

Authors

  • Smartson. P. NYONI Author
  • Thabani NYONI Author

Keywords:

Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Cuba from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes single exponential smoothing model. The optimal value of the smoothing constants α is 0.1 based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will hover around 53 deaths per 100 000 live births over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local causes of preventable maternal deaths and continue routine surveillance of severe maternal morbidities.

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Published

2026-02-20

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 02 (2026): WEJMMS

Section

Articles

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

PROJECTION OF MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR CUBA USING THE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL. (2026). Western European Journal of Medicine and Medical Science, 4(02), 116-127. https://westerneuropeanstudies.com/index.php/3/article/view/3903