MATERNAL MORTALITY PROJECTION FOR MOLDOVA USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Moldova from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will decline from around 18.3 in 2024 to about 11.3 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to attend to local factors associated with maternal mortality and continue routine surveillance of sever maternal morbidity.