ESTIMATING FUTURE TRENDS OF MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR GRENADA USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING APPROACH

Authors

  • Smartson. P. NYONI Independent Researcher & Medical Doctor, Harare, Zimbabwe Author
  • Thabani NYONI Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe Author

Keywords:

Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Grenda from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.8 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will hover around 50 deaths per 100 000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address local causes of maternal mortality.

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Published

2026-03-14

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 03 (2026): WEJMMS

Section

Articles

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

ESTIMATING FUTURE TRENDS OF MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR GRENADA USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING APPROACH. (2026). Western European Journal of Medicine and Medical Science, 4(03), 59-68. https://westerneuropeanstudies.com/index.php/3/article/view/3905