ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE ESTIMATION FOR SEYCHELLES USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL

Authors

  • Smartson. P. NYONI Independent Researcher & Medical Doctor, Harare, Zimbabwe Author
  • Thabani NYONI Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe Author

Keywords:

Exponential smoothing, Maternal Mortality Ratio, Forecasting

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Seychelles from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.5 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will increase from around 61 in 2024 to about 70 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to tirelessly address local drivers of maternal mortality.

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Published

2026-06-20

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 06 (2026): WEJMMS

Section

Articles

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE ESTIMATION FOR SEYCHELLES USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODEL. (2026). Western European Journal of Medicine and Medical Science, 4(06), 107-117. https://westerneuropeanstudies.com/index.php/3/article/view/3911