CALCULATING FUTURE VALUES OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR SLOVAKIA USING HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Slovakia from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.5 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will remain very low over the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to continuously address local causes of maternal deaths.