FORECASTING MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR ST LUCIA USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING APPROACH

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for St Lucia from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.6 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will fall from around 50 in 2024 to about 45 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to address major drivers of maternal mortality across the country