APPLICATION OF HOLT’S LINEAR MODEL IN FORECASTING MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR TUNISIA

Authors

  • Smartson. P. NYONI Independent Researcher & Medical Doctor, Harare, Zimbabwe Author
  • Thabani NYONI Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe Author

Keywords:

Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Maternal Mortality Ratio

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Tunisia from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.7 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will fall from around 37 in 2024 to about 28 deaths per 100 000 live births in 2035. We implore authorities to direct more resources towards the implementation of quality improvement strategies

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Published

2026-08-22

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 08 (2026): WEJMMS

Section

Articles

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

APPLICATION OF HOLT’S LINEAR MODEL IN FORECASTING MATERNAL MORTALITY FOR TUNISIA. (2026). Western European Journal of Medicine and Medical Science, 4(08), 11-22. https://westerneuropeanstudies.com/index.php/3/article/view/3916

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